Syria Daily: Can Assad’s Forces Hold A Line of Defense in Hama Province?

The latest rebel advance, in Hama Province on Sunday, has raised questions about whether President Assad’s forces can maintain a defense line in the west of Syria.

The rebel coalition Jaish al-Fateh followed up its victories throughout Idlib Province in northwest Province with a sweep through the al-Ghab Plain to the south. Regime troops, who had mounted a brief counter-offensive last week, retreated from towns such as Ziyarah. They appear to be moving towards the bases at Joureen, important both for bombardment of Idlib and Hama Provinces and as a shield for the Assad heartland of Latakia Province on the Mediterranean.

See Syria Developing: Rebels Advance in Hama Offensive, Regime Falls Back on Key Military Bases

State news agency SANA does not acknowledge the retreat but implicitly admits the loss of the area as it writes, “The Syrian Arab Army’s Air Force launched airstrikes on terrorists’ dens in al-Ziyara, Zaizoun and al-Zyadia in the northwest countryside of Hama province, killing many terrorists and destroying of their vehicles, weapons, and ammunition.”

Since March, rebels have taken the provincial capital of Idlib; the city of Jisr al-Shughour on the Turkish border; and the town of Ariha and the last functioning regime bases in Idlib Province. Last month, they finally captured the town of Frikka, the last regime position in the province, located on the key east-west highway between Aleppo and Latakia.

If Joureen falls, rebels could move into Latakia Province, advancing on cities such as Latakia and Tartous. Both have been considered essential to the President’s hold on power.

Over the weekend, the regime was also unsettled in Latakia city by protests over the alleged killed of a military officer by a cousin of President Assad. While pro-Assad outlets are emphasizing that the demonstrations are solely a call for justice, some observers believe the public display also shows war fatigue.

See Syria Daily, August 9: Protests Over Assad Cousin’s “Road Rage” Killing of Colonel

Alternatively, rebels can continue south towards Hama, the fourth-largest city in Syria and the site of an uprising in 1982 which was put down — with the loss of tens of thousands of lives — by President Assad’s father Hafez.

Following the loss of Idlib Province this spring, regime officials — reportedly with the involvement of Iranian commanders — have discussed the holding of a defense line from Latakia through Homs, further south of Hama, to Damascus and the Lebanese border.

That line would already give up Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, to rebels. Now the rebels are challenging even that de facto barrier for the partition of Syria.