Yesterday saw the release of some impressive first person footage of a group of Ahrar al-Sham members storming and taking a hill in Latakia Province. Recently, Jaish al Fatah has been making advances into Latakia that are starting to put the traditional home of the Alawite sect into jeopardy. It is extremely important for Assad to keep control of these areas, however there is more and more evidence pointing to an extreme shortage of troops for the Syrian regime. This is leaving the regime with some extremely difficult choices as it is currently under assault in several areas in the north and south of Syria.
It is also questionable to assume that Hezbollah would get involved in the Latakia Province, however it is not out of the realm of possibilities. There is some Hezbollah presence, however, this would cause an increase in casualties and an increase of Hezbollah becoming deeper involved in the quagmire it finds itself in inside Syria.
How did this all happen? In 2013, the Latakia front was opened by a coalition of groups ranging from the Free Syrian Army to Al Nusra. The 2013 offensive was primarily lead by jihadist groups like Nusra and Junud Al Sham (a group of mainly Chechen jihadists). Ahrar al Sham also had a presence, along with Harakat Sham al-Islam (a group founded by released Guantanamo inmates). The Islamic State also participated in this attack as relations were still good between IS and the rest of the opposition in 2013.
Several Alawite villages were taken, and allegations of civilian massacres by Al Nusra were also reported. The Assad regime was able to retake most of these villages, however, the insurgents were able to dig in and establish a small presence in Latakia.
No comments:
Post a Comment