Military Confrontation Between NATO and Russia Is Increasingly Likely, Warns New Report

By VICE News

Armed conflict between NATO and Russia is becoming more likely, warned a new report by the London-based European Leadership Network (ELN) published today.

Ian Kerns, the director of the think tank, said that ramped-up military exercises on both sides have contributed to "a climate of mistrust" — and, on occasion, "some quite close encounters between the NATO and Russian militaries."

NATO has planned approximately 270 military exercises for this year, while Russia has announced 4,000.

On Wednesday morning, however, NATOaccused ELN of "misleadingly put[ting] NATO and Russian exercises on par."

"NATO military activities are proportionate, defensive, and fully in line with our international commitments," the alliance stated in a press release. Russia, in contrast, is running "over 10 times more" military exercises this year than NATO is, and is incorporating "nuclear and nuclear capable forces" into its activities — according to NATO.

The statement stresses that "Russia's unpredictable and surprise military manoeuvres contribute to instability."

Watch the VICE News documentary, The Russians are Coming: NATO's Frontier:

In June, NATO's Allied Shield exercise mobilized some 15,000 troops from 21 countries. As part of the drill, NATO soldiers in Poland combatted enemies from the fictional state of "Bothnia" — a former democratic republic that was trying "to gain a dominant position in the region." They engaged "Bothnian" insurgents in Ukraine-style irregular warfare scenarios.

Three months earlier, Russia ran "snap exercises" involving 80,000 personnel.

In May, NATO and Russia carried out yet more rival drills: the Russians, with 12,000 troops and 250 combat plans in the Ural Mountains and Siberia, and NATO with 4,000 troops in the Arctic. The Russian drill was not unannounced beforehand. "Tanks don't need visas," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin joked, on national television.

According to the new ELN report, the increasingly expansive and routine military exercises run by each side — meant to prepare for conflict — could themselves hasten war. The paper's authors urge Russia and NATO member states to re-examine the necessity of future drills.